Countdown - 4th seed in the AFC

Indianapolis Colts – 2006-07 Super Bowl Champions (2006 record – 12-4), projected 2007 record – 10-6



Summary – Most teams (see 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers) coming off such a successful season like the Colts’ in 2006-07 would get caught up in all the activities of the offseason, and not adequately prepare for the start of the regular season. Common football terminology refers to this process as a team “losing their hunger.” While the Colts have one of the best leaders in the league as the captain of their team in Peyton Manning, it’s a guarantee that not all of the Colts are hungry this season. A prime example of this was the sudden retirement of Colts’ former left tackle 32-year-old Tarik Glenn, who, and this is pure speculation, retired because he lost the desire to prepare for a grueling offseason.

While most teams fall into the trap of relaxing after a Super Bowl victory, the Colts’ management has tried their best to bring in new blood to avoid having a down year. But by implementing six new starters, it can be certain that Indianapolis will struggle early in the year building the chemistry among their defensive players, which is so vital to the success of the defense.

The players with the most to prove on the defense are cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson, and safety Antoine Bathea. With opposing teams trailing often because of Indy’s explosive offense, it will be more than likely that the Colt’s secondary will be tested through the air a great deal late, in many contests. Helping the secondary will be the fastest defensive end combination in the league in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, who hope to continue to put up incredibly strong numbers pressuring the opposing quarterback.

Where the Indy defense will struggle, like last year, will be in their rush defense. Not helping the cause is the yearlong absence of defensive tackle Booger McFarland with a damaged Achilles. The Indy rush defense will be the one area that will hinder the team the whole year, and ultimately will prevent the Colts from returning to the Super Bowl (it also doesn’t help that the Colts let former Pro Bowl linebacker Cato June escape during the free agency period).

Star to Watch – As always, the most important player to the success of the Colts is quarterback Peyton Manning. But the player that has moved into second in terms of importance is second year running back Joseph Addai. In 2006-07, Addai averaged 4.8 yards a carry, an astronomical number, and will have to put up numbers similar to that to support a very weak defense. Added to that pressure, the lose of Pro Bowl tackle Tarik Glenn will definitely hurt the effectiveness of Addai, and will force the talented running back to pass block much more for Manning. Also watch: The health of safety Bob Sanders will be key. The whole league saw how ineffective the defense was without Sanders last year.

Players to Watch – Two rookies that will be key to the success of the Colts are wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez and new starting left tackle Tony Ugoh. Ugoh, the most important newcomer for the Colts because he must protect Peyton Manning, receives the difficult task of protecting Peyton Manning’s blindside that Tarik Glenn had watched for Manning’s entire career. Ugoh will not be perfect and will receive a lot of help from tight ends and running backs, and while he will have moments of inconsistency I expect Ugoh to play well because of Peyton Manning controlling the defense with his audibles. I believe that the wild card for the Colts offense will be Anthony Gonzalez. With big shoes to fill in the form of Brandon Stokely -the best slot receiver in football besides Wes Welker - Stokely was a force when healthy and allowed All Pro wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison to face single coverage on the ends. If Gonzalez is able to pick up Indy’s offense quickly, he should prove to Colts fans and the rest of the NFL that was just as good as college teammate, ninth overall pick Ted Ginn Jr.

What I expect to see from the Indianapolis Colts:

- Peyton Manning will stay healthy despite being pressured, hit, and sacked much more this season. He will once again have a great season, and will move closer to breaking every major passing record throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, and Joseph Addai out of the backfield.

- Bob Sanders will continue to break down during the season, and will not be nearly as effective in his return to the Colts’ secondary as he was last year in the Cincinnati game all the way through the playoffs.

- Dwight Freeney will be very disappointing in 2007-08 and people will begin to question if he is worth all the money he received this offseason. His lack of sacks will be due to the added attention he will receive on nearly every play from offenses that don’t have to concern themselves with double teaming Anthony McFarland. Freeney will also suffer from the abundance of running plays that will continue to be called against the Colts’ defense because of their inability to stop opposing running attacks.

- On the opposite end of the spectrum, defensive end Robert Mathis will have 11+ sacks this season because of the single blocking schemes allowed to him because of the double teams given to his counterpart Freeney.

- It is my contention that the Indy linebacking core is one of the weakest in the league, and they are one of the biggest reasons to why the Colts struggled so mightily against the run so much last year. Indy also did not do themselves any favors with letting Cato June leave for free agency, and I expect the linebacking core to be the weakest link in the Colts’ defense, and thus the team as a whole to suffer greatly from terrible play by the linebackers.

- I also expect the secondary to be average, and not benefit from the same pressure provided by Dwight Freeney over the previous five years. The safeties will be the most important position in the secondary with the emphasis of the cover two on deep zone plays, and the Colts better hope to God that Bob Sanders stays healthy, because if he doesn’t, the defense will be in real trouble.

- Lastly, I expect Tony Dungy, a la Bill Cowher, to retire once the 2007-08 season is over. I think he has too many interests outside of football (church and volunteer work) to keep him involved in a sport that is so demanding, and I think he will have a bit of a let down after reaching the pinnacle of America’s biggest sport.

How Indy will fare in 2007-08 season

I think the Colts will finish 10-6 or 9-7 in a very weak division. This is a very tough thing to predict because of the colliding factors There’s past history that says that many players will become complacent and will not be mentally prepared for the beginning of the season. But there’s also Peyton Manning, who is the ultimate professional, and who I can guarantee will be ready for New Orleans Saints on opening night. Also, there’s the fact that the Indy offense will/always is very good, but the Colts’ defense will be very bad. The big question is: Can Peyton Manning’s offense score enough points to cover for the defense’s mistakes? Only time will tell. But the one thing I am sure about is that the Indianapolis Colts will not repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2007-08. Mark it down.