Thursday, August 30, 2007

Countdown - 4th seed in the AFC

Indianapolis Colts – 2006-07 Super Bowl Champions (2006 record – 12-4), projected 2007 record – 10-6



Summary – Most teams (see 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers) coming off such a successful season like the Colts’ in 2006-07 would get caught up in all the activities of the offseason, and not adequately prepare for the start of the regular season. Common football terminology refers to this process as a team “losing their hunger.” While the Colts have one of the best leaders in the league as the captain of their team in Peyton Manning, it’s a guarantee that not all of the Colts are hungry this season. A prime example of this was the sudden retirement of Colts’ former left tackle 32-year-old Tarik Glenn, who, and this is pure speculation, retired because he lost the desire to prepare for a grueling offseason.

While most teams fall into the trap of relaxing after a Super Bowl victory, the Colts’ management has tried their best to bring in new blood to avoid having a down year. But by implementing six new starters, it can be certain that Indianapolis will struggle early in the year building the chemistry among their defensive players, which is so vital to the success of the defense.

The players with the most to prove on the defense are cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson, and safety Antoine Bathea. With opposing teams trailing often because of Indy’s explosive offense, it will be more than likely that the Colt’s secondary will be tested through the air a great deal late, in many contests. Helping the secondary will be the fastest defensive end combination in the league in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, who hope to continue to put up incredibly strong numbers pressuring the opposing quarterback.

Where the Indy defense will struggle, like last year, will be in their rush defense. Not helping the cause is the yearlong absence of defensive tackle Booger McFarland with a damaged Achilles. The Indy rush defense will be the one area that will hinder the team the whole year, and ultimately will prevent the Colts from returning to the Super Bowl (it also doesn’t help that the Colts let former Pro Bowl linebacker Cato June escape during the free agency period).

Star to Watch – As always, the most important player to the success of the Colts is quarterback Peyton Manning. But the player that has moved into second in terms of importance is second year running back Joseph Addai. In 2006-07, Addai averaged 4.8 yards a carry, an astronomical number, and will have to put up numbers similar to that to support a very weak defense. Added to that pressure, the lose of Pro Bowl tackle Tarik Glenn will definitely hurt the effectiveness of Addai, and will force the talented running back to pass block much more for Manning. Also watch: The health of safety Bob Sanders will be key. The whole league saw how ineffective the defense was without Sanders last year.

Players to Watch – Two rookies that will be key to the success of the Colts are wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez and new starting left tackle Tony Ugoh. Ugoh, the most important newcomer for the Colts because he must protect Peyton Manning, receives the difficult task of protecting Peyton Manning’s blindside that Tarik Glenn had watched for Manning’s entire career. Ugoh will not be perfect and will receive a lot of help from tight ends and running backs, and while he will have moments of inconsistency I expect Ugoh to play well because of Peyton Manning controlling the defense with his audibles. I believe that the wild card for the Colts offense will be Anthony Gonzalez. With big shoes to fill in the form of Brandon Stokely -the best slot receiver in football besides Wes Welker - Stokely was a force when healthy and allowed All Pro wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison to face single coverage on the ends. If Gonzalez is able to pick up Indy’s offense quickly, he should prove to Colts fans and the rest of the NFL that was just as good as college teammate, ninth overall pick Ted Ginn Jr.

What I expect to see from the Indianapolis Colts:

- Peyton Manning will stay healthy despite being pressured, hit, and sacked much more this season. He will once again have a great season, and will move closer to breaking every major passing record throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, and Joseph Addai out of the backfield.

- Bob Sanders will continue to break down during the season, and will not be nearly as effective in his return to the Colts’ secondary as he was last year in the Cincinnati game all the way through the playoffs.

- Dwight Freeney will be very disappointing in 2007-08 and people will begin to question if he is worth all the money he received this offseason. His lack of sacks will be due to the added attention he will receive on nearly every play from offenses that don’t have to concern themselves with double teaming Anthony McFarland. Freeney will also suffer from the abundance of running plays that will continue to be called against the Colts’ defense because of their inability to stop opposing running attacks.

- On the opposite end of the spectrum, defensive end Robert Mathis will have 11+ sacks this season because of the single blocking schemes allowed to him because of the double teams given to his counterpart Freeney.

- It is my contention that the Indy linebacking core is one of the weakest in the league, and they are one of the biggest reasons to why the Colts struggled so mightily against the run so much last year. Indy also did not do themselves any favors with letting Cato June leave for free agency, and I expect the linebacking core to be the weakest link in the Colts’ defense, and thus the team as a whole to suffer greatly from terrible play by the linebackers.

- I also expect the secondary to be average, and not benefit from the same pressure provided by Dwight Freeney over the previous five years. The safeties will be the most important position in the secondary with the emphasis of the cover two on deep zone plays, and the Colts better hope to God that Bob Sanders stays healthy, because if he doesn’t, the defense will be in real trouble.

- Lastly, I expect Tony Dungy, a la Bill Cowher, to retire once the 2007-08 season is over. I think he has too many interests outside of football (church and volunteer work) to keep him involved in a sport that is so demanding, and I think he will have a bit of a let down after reaching the pinnacle of America’s biggest sport.

How Indy will fare in 2007-08 season

I think the Colts will finish 10-6 or 9-7 in a very weak division. This is a very tough thing to predict because of the colliding factors There’s past history that says that many players will become complacent and will not be mentally prepared for the beginning of the season. But there’s also Peyton Manning, who is the ultimate professional, and who I can guarantee will be ready for New Orleans Saints on opening night. Also, there’s the fact that the Indy offense will/always is very good, but the Colts’ defense will be very bad. The big question is: Can Peyton Manning’s offense score enough points to cover for the defense’s mistakes? Only time will tell. But the one thing I am sure about is that the Indianapolis Colts will not repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2007-08. Mark it down.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Countdown - 4th seed in the NFC

Seattle Seahawks – (9-7 in 2006) – Projected record of 10-6


The most consistent team over the past four years in the very inconsistent NFC East, the Seattle Seahawks enter the 2007 season with many question marks. The secondary’s ability to support the very strong front seven is one thing that has hurt Seattle in the past, and the Seahawks hope they brought in enough help with the signings of Bryan Russell and Deon Grant from Cleveland and Jacksonville respectively. But – as is always the case with the extremely aggressive defense in Seattle – the success on the defensive side of the ball will depend on the effectiveness of the pass rush.

Another question mark that the Seahawks hope to answer in a positive way is the inconsistent play of the offensive line. With one of the best running backs in league rushing for Seattle, Shaun Alexander was only able to rush for a miniscule 3.6 yards/carry in 2006. 3.6 yards per carry is well below the league’s average, and dramatically down from the year previous. The decrease in effectiveness of the Seattle rushing attack put much more pressure on quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, which was seen in his sub-par 18-15 touchdown to interception ratio in 2006.

To try to solve this quandary I looked for answers. Reading different publications, I saw that many experts think that the departure of left guard Steve Hutchinson is the main reason for the decrease in the yards per carry of Alexander and the extreme ineffectiveness of above-average backup Maurice Morris. Time will tell, and we should know the answer to the effect that Hutchinson’s absence has on the offensive line very quickly after the start of the season with both Alexander and the offensive line at full strength (something neither was at last season). The offensive line, more than anyone except the secondary, will be the unit that determines the success of the Seahawks skill players.

Star to Watch: Without much argument from anyone in the NFL inner circle, the title of the NFL’s best left tackle goes to Seattle’s Walter Jones. An immovable force, Jones serves as the Seahawks’ “go to guy (more with this phrase later)” in the running game. What I mean by this is that when the Seahawks need a big first down they usually look to run behind Walter Jones and his left side of the line. With that being said, previous experience has shown us that if Jones goes down the Seattle offensive line will fall apart, and Seattle will fall out of the playoffs. So Seattle fans should be on their knees at night praying for good health for themselves, parents, children, and Walter Jones.

Be sure to also closely watch stars: Shaun Alexander. Who, the Seahawks hope, just suffered a down year and has not begun the decline familiar to so many elite running backs. Deion Branch. Who looks to better gel with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Juliun Peterson. Who is looking to improve on his stellar season last year.

Player to watch: After the loss of both Jerramy Stevens and Darrell Jackson, someone will have to step up and pick up the slack in the Seahawks’ passing game. That player, I believe, is four-year-veteran wide receiver DJ Hackett. Hackett showed a lot of promise last year, and was referred to by many people around the Seahawks’ organization as Hasselbeck’s “go to guy,” a honor that carries extra weight on a team with weapons in the passing game such as Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Jackson, and Stevens. The Seahawks should be able to exploit many weaknesses using four wide receiver sets, and Hackett will be the catalyst for the Seahawks’ complex attack.

Also watch: Defensive end Patrick Kerney, cornerback Marcus Trufant, and middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu all of whom I expect to improve on their impressive seasons last year.

What I expect to see from the Seahawks:

- The Seattle Seahawks, who have one of the best home field advantages in the league, will continue to be dominant at home but will struggle on the road because of their defense will not benefit from the same communication problems opponents have at Qwest Field.

- The running game will improve from last year, but will not be as dominant as it was in the 2005-2006 Super Bowl season. One factor is that current starting left guard Rob Sims is not as good as former left guard Steve Hutchinson. Another factor is that Shaun Alexander is indeed, as many experts fear, on the downside of his career.

- The Seahawks passing game will be rather inconsistent at home because of the rain in Seattle, but will be dominant in some games. The biggest factor in the passing game is the way quarterback Matt Hasselbeck limits turnovers, which he will have to improve on if the Seahawks wish to return to the Super Bowl in 2007-08.

- I see the Seattle defense as one of the top five units in the league, and I believe they will back my thought up with excellent play throughout the year. Bringing in Patrick Kerney to rush off the edge was a very underrated move, and the Seahawks will benefit from his rush defense as well.

- Lofa Tatupu will play very well this year, but not nearly as well as his 2006 pro bowl season when he was an absolute force in the middle of the defense. But there will be times when the Seahawks, a very undersized defense when compared to other teams around the league, will severely struggle against the run.

- Julian Peterson will be one of the three best outside linebackers in the league in 2007, and start for the NFC in the pro bowl if he decides to show up for the event.

- The Seattle secondary will struggle at times, but will step up because of the pressure provided by the Seahawks extremely talented and aggressive front seven. I expect Deon Grant to be as good as he was in Jacksonville, but I see Brian Russell being benched for the likes of safety Jonathon Babineax at some point during the season.

How the Seattle Seahawks will fare in 2007-2008:

I see the Seahawks riding the strong performance of their defense into the fourth seed of an improved NFC, and continually improving NFC West. Their position could easily be flipped with St Louis’ depending on how each team fares against the other, which will decide the tie breaker. And with a lot of playoff experience, I believe that Seattle has a legitimate shot at representing the NFC in the 2008 Super Bowl in Arizona.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Countdown - 5th Seed in the AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers – (2006 record = 8-8); Projected record = 11-5

Summary – The case can easily be made that the Pittsburgh Steelers suffered from a Super Bowl hangover from their Febuary 2006 victory. Even ex-starting outside linebacker Joey Porter hinted that some of the passion vanished from the team at the beginning of the 2006 regular season. But this year, with a change at the head coach position and an overhaul of the assistant coaches, I think that the Steelers’ players will be ready for the start of the 2007-08 season after trying to impress the new staff throughout training camp.

New 35-year-old head coach Mike Tomlin (2nd youngest coach in the league to the Raiders’ Lane Kiffen) takes over the reigns of one of the most stable franchises in the league, but will have a tough legacy to follow. Bill Cowher has big shoes to fill, but experienced and talented players will help aide Tomlin’s transition by accelerating in playing smash mouth offense coupled with a ferocious blitzing attack on the defensive side of the ball.

But more important than the hiring of Tomlin will be the play of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger set the tone for the 2006 season many months before opening day when one summer morning he was struck by a car while riding on his motorcycle. A horrific crash – as many motorcycle crashes are – Roethlisberger suffered serious damage to his face, arm, and ligament damage to his knee. And while he recovered to start the 3rd game of the season, Roethlisberger’s play was erratic and filled with mistakes. He will have to play extremely well this season and improve on the 18 - 23 touchdown to interception ratio he threw for last season. But Roethlisberger doesn’t have to do it all himself. Joining him in the backfield is running back Willie Parker, who carried most of the running load last year, and looks to duplicate the extremely successful season he had last year. Blocking for Parker, Roethlisberger, and stud wide receiver Hines Ward is an impressive offensive line headlined by Alan Faneca. The line – like Roethlisberger – also has something to prove because of the loss of OL coach Russ Grimm, who left for Arizona with offensive coordinator Ken Wizenhunt, and I look for them to succeed in the face of adversity.

Star to Watch: The strengths of the Steelers is not on offense, though that is the unit most people discuss. The defense, grouped with Tomlin’s adapted 3-4 scheme, will prove to be what determines the success of the Steelers this season. Although FS Troy Polamalu receives most of the headlines, it is defensive nose tackle Casey Hampton who strikes fear in the hearts of opposing offensive coordinators and offensive lines alike. Hampton, the 6 foot 1 inch 325 pound nose tackle, makes it virtually impossible for opposing running backs to have success against the Steelers rush defense, which frees up Polamalu to roam the field and disrupt the opposing passing attack. Hampton, more than any other player is indispensable to the defense (See: “leader” Joey Porter).

Players to Watch – With the aggressive nature of the Steelers’ defense and their strength against the run, the Pittsburgh secondary will come under great stress with the abundance of man to man situations in which they are faced. The players under the most pressure are the two starting cornerbacks – Ike Taylor and Brian McFadden – along with inexperienced safety Ryan Clark, who will be forced to cover for the gambling Polamalu. Especially considering that the Steelers will face receivers such as Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Braylon Edwards, Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton twice this season, the secondary will need to step up to the challenge in order for the Steelers to make the playoffs.

What I expect to see from the Pittsburgh Steelers:

Ben Roethlisberger will be very good, but not great. He does not need to be Peyton Manning. Roethlisberger needs to get back to what he does well, and that is taking safe throws (the key to every quarterbacks success) and maneuver in the pocket to avoid pressure (which he does better than nearly every quarterback not scheduled to be sentenced on December 10th, 2007). If he does those two things, the Steelers will be successful, and I foresee him doing both.

Hines Ward will have a bounce back season with the improvement of Roethlisberger, and Santonio Holmes will be a breakout star in 2007. Also: Heath Miller will prove to be a nice security blanket, and will be very effective in red zone situations both blocking and catching the football.

Middle linebackers Lary Foote and James Farrior will be solid as usual, and OLB Clark Haggins will be in Pro Bowl form in the absence of Joey Porter. Speaking of Porter, the Steelers will be a better defense in the absence of one of the most overrated players of the league.

Finally; Mike Tomlin will not coach as long as Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh, but he will be very effective as head coach, and that effectiveness will begin this year.

How the Pittsburgh Steelers will fare – I see an 11-5 record in their future, securing the fifth seed in the very strong AFC. They could move up if one of the top tier teams falters (Indy, San Diego, Baltimore), but I think for now the safest place to put the Steelers is as the number five seed because of the strength of the teams within their division. But while they’ll have a strong regular season, I don’t see the Steelers making much noise in the postseason when Tomlin will undoubtedly be forced to go through the likes of more experienced head coaches. In the end, the Steelers will miss Bill Cowher patrolling the sidelines, but will be happy in the future that lies ahead in the hands of Tomlin and his staff.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Countdown - 5th Seed in the NFC

Dallas Cowboys (Last Season: 9-7) – Projected record = 9-7

Summary – With polarizing coach Bill Parcells gone from the Cowboys’ fold, many players seem to be much happier. Terrell Owens and Julius Jones both have made comments – in essence – saying good riddance to Parcells, and that the Cowboys will be a better team in his absence. To make such a strong statement about such a well respected coach can be terrible karma, and usually I would take Jones’ and Owens’ statements into consideration and drop the team out of my top twelve, but there’s too much talent on the Cowboys for them to miss the playoffs. Players like the deteriorating Owens, Tony Romo, Terry Glenn, Marion Barber III, Julius Jones, Jason Whitten, and that’s just the offensive side. In the most overrated division in the league, the Cowboys should beat up on the Redskins and Giants as well as the other weak NFC opponents outside their division.

Much of the concentration will be focused on the relationship between Romo and his receiving corps – mostly 81 – but the thing that will determine the Cowboys’ offensive success is the production of the running game. With one of the best two back combinations, the Cowboys need Barber III to build on the success he had at the end of 2006, and Julius Jones to return to the form he had previous to the success of Barber III.

The Cowboys defense will also need to improve dramatically. With some of the most physically talented players at their positions in the league (Roy Williams, Terrence Newman, Demarcus Ware, Jason Ferguson, etc.) one stands out when looking at the new head coach owner Jerry Jones hired.

Star to Watch - Demarcus Ware looks to use his physical gifts to impact the game like Cowboys’ coach former player Shawne Merriman did in San Diego. But Ware is a better coverage linebacker than Merriman, and the Cowboys will need to use his coverage skills to aide the secondary that will undoubtedly have coverage issues like they did in 2006. Look for Demarcus Ware to increase his sacks and overall effectiveness because of the installation of a much more aggressive defense implemented by new head coach Wade Philips. Also watch: T.O’s companion Terry Glenn, one of the most underrated players in the league who gets much less attention than his counterpart, but is just as good. Roy Williams will also need to be much better in pass coverage this season to aide new safety Ken Hamlin and inconsistent Terrence Newman.

Player to Watch – One of the former top tight ends in the league, Jason Whitten, will need to have a much better season if the Cowboys are going to contend for a Championship in 2007-08. Whitten, a big target with soft hands, only had one touchdown and below 700 yards receiving last year, disappointing both fantasy owners and the Dallas organization. But expect Whitten to serve as Tony Romo’s security blanket and catch more balls and become much more effective in the red zone.

What I expect to see from the Cowboys throughout the year:

Julius Jones will return to his previous form and team up with Marion Barber III to form one of the best – if not the best – running back tandem in the league. Barber and Jones will take much of the pressure off inexperienced quarterback Tony Romo, allowing more time to find weapons such as Whitten, Owens, and Glenn.

The Dallas defense will evolve into one of the top seven units in the league behind the strong play of Ware, Williams, NT Jason Ferguson, and unsung defensive leader MLB Bradie James.

The replacement of Bill Parcells will prove to be of little effect in terms of X’s and O’s, but the handling of Terrell Owens will drastically different. Head coach Wade Philips will refer to TO as TO or Terrell or Owens, and not just “he” like Parcells, and TO will speak out constantly (with ESPN covering the Cowboys more than any other team). Annoying everyone in the Cowboys’ locker room.

Bill Parcells will be excellent on the set of ESPN’s Sunday NFL Countdown teamed up with Emmitt Smith and former receiver Keyshawn Johnson.

Terry Glenn will put up similar yardage figures as Owens, but will not score as many touchdowns. Also, Jason Whitten will prove that 2006 was a fluke and will score at least six touchdowns, and put himself back into the pro bowl.

How the Dallas Cowboys will fare – 9-7, and fifth seed in the playoffs. The Cowboys will look like Super Bowl winners one week and dogs the next. They are one of the most dangerous teams in the league, but their season will be one of severe inconsistency, much like 2006. But the Cowboys will win their first round playoff game only to lose to the number one seed in the second round of the NFC playoffs. Also, Terrell Owens will be cut after the 2007 season when management realizes that he is not worth the trouble.

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Countdown - 6th Seed in the AFC

Buffalo Bills (Last year: 7-9) – Projected record = 10-6

- Summary – 2006 was a season of numerous“close but no cigar” type games for the Buffalo Bills. With 5 losses of 3 points or less, Buffalo was on the cusp of the playoffs in the very strong AFC. The teams that Buffalo lost to in the 3 point or less games were very strong. Detroit (3 points), mere non-playoff qualifiers Tennessee (1 point), and playoff teams San Diego (3 points), New England (2 points), and Super Bowl champions Indianapolis (1 point). The quality of teams that defeated Buffalo by such a close margin mixed with the youth of the Bills team last year bodes well for their hopeful progression into a 2007 playoff team.

A year later, and an additional year of experience for Buffalo will prove to be invaluable for a team that was one of the youngest in 2006. Game management in tight ballgames will be critical for the entire team, but especially for quarterback J.P. Losman. The big target Losman will look to will be stud WR Lee Evans. While he is one of the shorter wide receivers in the league, the 5’9” Evans uses his excellent speed and superb agility to consistently beat secondaries. This past year against Houston, Evans used his superior skill set to score two 83 yard touchdowns in one quarter.

While the Bills seem to be confident in the abilities of Losman and Evans, tremendous uncertainties lie in spots vacated by traded stars Willis McGahee, Nate Clements, and Takeo Spikes. Stepping in to their large shoes are first round draft pick Marshawn Lynch, former Indy CB Jason Webster, and second round pick MLB Paul Posluszny. From what has been reported from Bills camp, Posluzney has been impressive, while Lynch has looked “just okay.” Because of the importance of the running game taking pressure away from the passing game, Lynch and fellow runningback Anthony Thomas will need to step up in order for the Bills to be successful.

- Stars to Watch – The underrated tandem of defensive ends – Matt Schobel and Chris Kelsay are two players with loads of experience on a very inexperienced defense. These two will have to consistently pressure the opposing quarterback, because if they don’t the Bills’ young secondary and linebacking core will continously be exposed. Plus: be sure to watch the best punter in the league Brian Moorman, who is - and will be - instrumental in winning the field position battle Bills coach Dick Jauron loves to play.

- Player to Watch – The unit to watch on the offensive side of the ball will be the Buffalo Bills offensive line. More specifically, newly signed LG Derrick Dockery. Dockery will form one of the most formidable offensive left side of the line combinations with 25 year old Jason Peters. The former Washington Redskin will do wonders in the effort to increase the 3.8 yard average Buffalo managed in 2006, and provide JP Losman the proper time needed to improve the passing offense. Also, focus on the aforementioned Lynch, Posluzney, and look for another wide receiver to step up and divert some of the coverage away from Lee Evans.

What I expect to see throughout the year:

-The Bills’ defense will struggle at certain points in the season, but they will continue to grow and mature as a unit throughout the year, as they did last year, and will become one of the ten best defenses in the league.

-JP Losman will have a breakout year throwing to Evans, Lynch out of the backfield, Peerless Price, Josh Reed, and what will be a great slot receiver in Roscoe Parrish. But in order to have this breakout year, Losman must control the ball and improve his 1.35 touchdown-interception ratio from 2006.

-Finally, I expect the jokes regarding the age of Bills' GM Marv Levy to commence once people see the young talent Levy and the rest of the Bills’ management has brought to Buffalo in just two years. And I expect this young talent to blossum and make Buffalo contenders in the brutal AFC for years to come.

- How the Buffalo Bills will fare – 10-6, and the 6th seed in the playoffs, and they will shock many teams and the “experts” at ESPN with a mix of efficient and explosive play from the Bills' young offense and defense.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Countdown - 6th Seed in the NFC

The Countdown – Team 12

12 - St Louis Rams (Last year: 8-8) - Projected record this year = 9-7

- Summary - In 2006, the Rams were one of the most explosive teams in the league under the leadership of new head coach Scott Linehan. QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and big play WR Torry Holt lead - year in and year out - one of the most powerful offenses in the league. But the St Louis Rams' hopes are not dependent on the likes of the offense. It is the defense that will control the Rams' destiny. Last year in games against Seattle – where the Rams saw their 28 point lead disappear in the fourth quarter, Chicago - where the troubled Rex Grossman faired exceptionally well, and many of the other games which the Rams lost (and even some of the games that the Rams won). The Rams defense and special teams will need to do a much better job eliminating big plays in order to get the ball back for their high powered offense.

- Star to watch: One of the most underrated players in the league is Pisa Tinoisamoa, one of the best cover linebackers in the league. Very reminiscent of Derrick Brooks in the way he runs and reads plays, the Hawaiian Tinoisamoa will be key for the success of St Louis’ defense.

- Player to watch: As always, notable names such as Orlando Pace, Leonard Little, Bulger, Holt, and Jackson will have a huge impact on the success of St Louis. But be sure to watch Brian Leonard - the backup running back to Steven Jackson - who was very impressive at Rutgers catching the ball out of the backfield this past year. Leonard will serve QB Marc Bulger well out of the backfield, and will allow Steven Jackson to defer a portion of the beating that he took pounding the ball against opposing defenses last year. Also be sure to watch rookie first round pick NT Adam Carriker, who will be instrumental in stopping the run.

What I expect to see throughout the year:

- A familiar name to the people of south Florida is Randy McMichael. McMichael had a down year – as did most of the Dolphins offensive players – and was looking for a change in offensive schemes, which is why he relocated to the midwest. While the tight end has not been the focal point for St Louis’ in past seasons, McMichael – like Leonard – should serve as a security blanket for Bulger when facing the pressure he is bound to face with weaknesses at the guard positions for the Rams.

- I expect St Louis to continue to move away from “the greatest show on turf” vertical passing approach that had become their trademark in the Rams' glory days. To do this, offensive cordinator Greg Olsen will look to pound their stud running backs Steven Jackson, and second round draftee Leonard to control time of possession. With that being said, the Rams continue to bolster their passing games with the likes of the aforementioned tight end Randy McMichael and newly signed wide receiver Drew Bennett.

- I expect there to be inconsistency from St Louis’ secondary. The aging Corey Chavous anchors a secondary that includes former first round draft pick Tye Hill, CB Fakhir Brown, and safety Oshiomogho Atogwe. This unit, more than any other, will decide the fate of the Rams. With the aide of a stellar pass rush anchored by Leonard Little and La’Roi Glover, the Rams secondary must prove that it can eliminate big plays from opposing offenses. This will prove to be extremely difficult, considering that the Rams have three very strong passing attacks in their own division.

How St Louis will fare - 9-7, and the 6th seed in the playoffs (But this could improve with the development of their defense).

Saturday, August 18, 2007

The Upcoming Weeks

I'm trying to avoid, as is the case in most Augusts previous to this one, all the hype surrounding the NFL's preseason. I think the preseason is relatively insignificant, and I get very angry at ESPN when they lead Sportscenter with a preseason game that doesn't involve a serious injury.

While I will continue to try to avoid all preseason games except the Bears, I am planning on working on creating a preseason ranking of the top 15/16 teams in my eyes in the NFL. This will be based on last year, and the offseason each team has had. Included with the numerical ranking will be 3 or 4 things I expect to see from that team, breakout players, a star watch, and why that team is located where they are in the rankings. There might be other things included with these things if I think of some, but we'll see.

After the rankings will be the way I see the postseason breaking down all the way to the Super Bowl, where I will pick a winner. I will also pick breakout player, rookie of the year, MVP's, and coach of the year for each league.

Weekly NFL columns will be found on my blog during the NFL season, which will in many ways mirror that of Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback with observations of the past week, rankings of the teams after the week, and other things that will be determined at a later date.

Look out for this, and I should be much better at breaking down the NFL and NBA than I am with soccer and baseball, because I have a more extensive background with these two sports.

But also look for a breakdown of the NASCAR race from Michigan this week. And also look out for my attempt to try to sound like I know what I am talking about with breaking down the University of Iowa's football squad this upcoming year. The UofI breakdown will also be coming soon.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Zambrano signs extension

Maybe it's the team or maybe it's the position. Either way, I'm terrified for the upcoming five/six years of Carlos Zambrano's future.

Today, the 17th of August, Zambrano and the Cubs agreed to a five year deal worth 91.5 million dollars with an option for a sixth year worth 19.5 million dollars. This contract is the largest average salary for a pitcher ever (which might not be the case when soon-to-be-free agent Johan Santana signs this offseason), and it is the largest average salary in Cubs history (surpassing Alfonso Soriano's deal).

Most fans in other cities would view locking up Zambrano as a great event for their team. But not Cubs fans. With the arm troubles of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, there's good reason to be pessimistic.

There are other factors besides Prior and Wood that make me nervous about the gigantic sum of money being given to the Cubs' ace.

The first reason I'm nervous is Zambrano's tempermant. Is he crazy, or just really fired up?

Zambrano spiking his helmet after making an out and breaking his bat over his knee following a strike out can be spun in either direction. One arguement is that he sees the opportunity to make up games on the Brewers disappearing because of his performance and he is frustrated, and breaking the bat or throwing down his helmet is a way of venting his frustration.

The second train of thought, and the way I usually view Zambrano's actions, is that he is a nut case who is going to break his knee cap trying to break his bat, go Jack Nicholson on someone's car after a bad outing, or beat up another teammate when Zambrano's having one of his moments.

If Zambrano is indeed crazy, logic says that he can't be trusted with a lot of money. Exhibit A: Mike Tyson.

But I, like everyone not around the team, have no idea whether Zambrano is crazy, or just extremely passionate about the game. But I guess we will have five more years to answer this question.

The second reason I'm nervous is from the recent stretch that Zambrano has been absolutely terrible in the most important time of the year for the Cubs. Zambrano seems to have stretches where he just doesn't have his "stuff" and looks pedestrian. Being inconsistent is a tough thing to be as the highest paid pitcher in the league and someone the team counts on to give a quality start every fifth day.

The third reason to be terrified is the decrease in velocity that Zambrano has shown this year. Back in 2003, the year that Bartman unfairly received all the blame for the Cubs' collapse, Zambrano would routinely hit 98 on the gun with his fastball. But in his last couple starts the hardest that I've seen Zambrano throw is 93. Now, it must be realized that he is four years older now, and there will be some natural loss of velocity. But once again, I'm a Cubs fan, and this is our nature.

After listing these three reasons why the Zambrano resigning could be a bad decision, I hope to be wrong. Truth be told, Zambrano is in the running for the National League Cy Young award every year, and he is a talent that the Cubs could not let go onto the free agent market. I just hope that Zambrano earns his money for the next five years, settles down, and leads the Cubs to a World Series victory as the ace of the staff.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

News Flash Cubs Fans

News flash Cubs fans -- your team is in serious trouble.

The Chicago Cubs, who a couple weeks ago were the hottest team in baseball, have cooled off considerably. In their last ten games the north-siders are 3-7 with holes being displayed over those ten games in the starting pitching and power hitting.

Replacing Alfonso Soriano (the Cubs best power hitter) with the platoon of Matt Murton, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones has forced Cubs skipper Lou Piniella to create a lineup full of singles hitters that do not strike fear in opposing ball clubs. The only healty hitter that consistently hits for power in the Cubs lineup is Derrek Lee, and even he is struggling to hit the ball out of the park this year compared to years previous. And without multiple healthy players capable of hitting for power (homeruns and doubles), there will be stretches of games where the team struggles to score runs (see: 3 wins in past 10 games).

The lack of run production is especially troublesome because of the struggles of some of the Cubs starting pitchers. Sean Marshall and Rich Hill have struggled mightly, with Hill looking as if he can't handle the pressure of pitching in a pennant race. But the struggles are not limited to the two tall lefties. Jason Marquis, a sinker ball pitcher who does not strike out many hitters, is inconsistent because he throws his mediocre sinker far too much, a pitch hitters are more than capable of hitting.

And while the team is in a load of trouble, Cubs fans (in typical fashion) are more concerned about Milwaukee's recent struggles (which can be expected without the ace of their staff, Ben Sheets), and do not realize that the St Louis Cardinals are only four games behind of their struggling ball club.

My prediction (if anyone cares), due to the latest run of play, is that the Cubs will not make the playoffs. They will finish third in the NL central because of a struggling starting staff, and the difficulty the team will have stringing singles together to support their pitchers.

Wayne Rooney's broken foot

In Manchester United's season opening match, Wayne Rooney suffered a fractured right foot minutes before halftime. While losing Rooney is a definite blow to ManU, they still possess an abundance of strikers (especially considering they signed one of the best in the world, Carlos Tevez).

Saturday, August 11, 2007

PGA Champ. Day 2 Reaction

Round 2 of the PGA Championship – August 10th

While I was not able to watch the second round of the 2007 PGA Championship on August 10th because of work responsibilities there are a couple of certainties, obvious to anyone who has remotely followed the PGA for the past ten years.

One: John Daly, although giving an extraordinarily entertaining interview about his lax attitude about his golf career, had no chance after being near the lead after Day 1. Daly, who is notoriously known as a chain smoking, caffeine guzzling, alcoholic simply does not keep the lifestyle that one needs to be successful in the world of sports today. In the 100+ degree temperatures of Southern Hills, physical fitness becomes one of the big factors along with, obviously, making shots. Shot making is one of the things that Daly does very well, especially with his enormous drives off the tee. Where he runs into trouble though, and Daly addressed this in his post round interview, is bending down and reading putts (which is amazing to think that a tour professional does not read all of his putts with the amount prize money at stake). But it must be remembered that a big factor in playing factor such heat is the physical fitness of the competitors.

Which leads to the second thing I was certain of going in to the 2nd round of the PGA Championship, and that was that Tiger Woods would make a run at the trophy. While Woods’ run is almost as certain as a Paris Hilton/Britney Spears/Lindsey Lohan joke on a late night talk show, no one could have predicted a record tying 63. But at this point in watching Tiger Woods’ career, it is unreasonable to think that there would eventually be a day where Woods would indeed tie or break the record. And with a birdie putt on the final hole, it appeared that he would indeed set the major record and score a 62. But while his second to last shot of the day rimmed out, Woods seemed very content with his round, but realized that the tournament was still not completed. A very different attitude compared to Daly the day before.

There are many differences between two of the most popular players on the PGA tour. Their skin color, hairlines, sponsors, women in their lives, etc, etc, etc. But the differences seen in the past two days in their respective interviews is what truly sets them apart. Daly is content with one good round, and Tiger is not. And the differing levels of satisfaction with their performance in tournaments are what have made John Daly a sideshow, and Tiger Woods the greatest golfer ever.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Bud Selig's Reaction

Resurrecting baseball from the pits of sports hell after angering its fan base after the strike of 1994. A 2.8 billion dollar television contract signed in 2006. A league doing what the almighty NFL cannot in making its sport “matter” in Asia and Europe. Opening beautiful ballparks in many cities over the past seven years. Building attendance to the highest it has ever been for Major League Baseball.

All of the following are accomplishments achieved by Bud Selig during his current reign as commissioner of Major League Baseball. But while Selig served as commissioner of Major League baseball during the years in which all of these events occurred, he does not, will not, and should not receive credit for the healthy state in which baseball currently presides. And after seeing his reaction to a homerun hit on August 4th, it is apparent that he realizes this fact.

Tonight, with Selig looking on, Barry Bonds hit his 755th career home run tying Henry Aaron for the most homeruns of all time. With the camera focused on Selig at all times, one could not tell by the commissioner’s reaction whether or not Barry Bonds had just tied Aaron in the second inning. Selig seemed stupefied that the greatest homerun hitter had just hit a homerun. As he watched the ball sail over the wall and into the stands it hit Selig. He was struck with the harsh reality of what he had let happen under his watch.

With his home run in the bottom of the second inning against Clay Hensley, Bonds had drawn the final line in the asterix next to every players name in this era. Prolific power hitters such as Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Miguel Tejada, Gary Sheffield, and Barry Bonds are all thought, and justifiably so, to have used performance enhancing drugs. Power hitters such as Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard face constant doubt on the merits of their performance, and things will continue to be this way because of the influx of performance enhancing drugs over the last twenty years, forever tarnishing the game.

August 4th, 2007 was a night where the greatest home run hitter ever, at least statistically, was actually booed by fans when he tied the most sacred and well-known record in all of sports.

For all the money he has made Major League baseball, for all the improvements that have occurred under his watch, Bud Selig’s legacy will not be remembered for any of those things. He will forever be attached with the steroid era. Selig will undoubtedly be remembered one hundred years from now for being the commissioner who wanted so badly to save his sport that he ignored the illegal use of performance enhancing drugs in each one of his clubhouses for many years too long.
When Barry Bonds hits homerun 756 and passes Hank Aaron for the title of greatest homerun hitter ever, the last piece of dirt will be removed from Bud Selig’s grave. And in three years, when he chooses to retire, Bud Selig will take his eternal resting place next to Barry Bonds in baseball infamy. The tombstone will read: Here lies Bud Selig and Barry Bonds. Both had a hand in ruining the credibility of Major League Baseball.

Late Night Update

Expect a new entry that I have been working on, but I have to postpone finishing because of extreme exhaustion. Check back within the next 15 hours. This entry will be my take on Bud Selig's reaction to Barry Bonds hitting homerun 755 on Saturday night. I'm trying to make it interesting, but keep in mind that it is my first entry and I will hopefully improve.

Good night.