Week 2 NFL Picks

It’s the second week of the NFL season, and I’m already burned out. I’ve heard that the best remedy is some time away from of football, therefore I plan to only watch the Iowa game on Saturday and maybe the Florida and Tennessee ball game down in the swamp on Saturday, but that’s it, only six hours. No USC-Nebraska, no Michigan-Notre Dame, no other garbage college football. I’m like the girl that says she’s waiting to have sex, yet gets drunk and gives oral sex every other weekend. Well I’m saving myself for the Sunday games, where we’ll tune in for a glorious day of pro football, with the best game Sunday night between New England and San Diego.

But while the Patriots and San Diego should be extremely entertaining, especially with what happened in last year’s playoffs, there are many other great games this week between up and coming teams, and teams that have had success over the recent stretch of two or three years (Tennessee – Indy, Pittsburg – Buffalo, etc).

Also, keep in mind that I pick games with regards to point spreads, and while the spreads do indeed change as Sunday approaches, that is something that I can’t control when I pick on Thursday or whenever I actually have time to sit down and right. So, the spreads I have listed are what was listed on Thursday on bodog.com.

Now that I cleared up that business here are my picks for week 2…

Record to Date – (7-7-2)

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (-10) – My Pick = Pit 24 – Buf 17 – I picked the Bills to make the playoffs this year, and I believe that they have a chance to win this game in Pittsburgh. All reports from Pittsburgh’s victory over Cleveland last week say that the Browns were absolutely terrible, and that Pittsburgh didn’t play all that well. So, even though I think that the Steelers will be a playoff team, there’s no way that they should be ten point favorites against an underrated Buffalo team. So, Buffalo’s the pick.
Key to the game: JP Losman will have to break the 225 yard mark this week and have less then two turnovers to give the Bills any chance against one of the best defenses in the league.

Cincinnati (-7) @ Cleveland – My Pick = CIN 31 – CLE 17 – What a terrible franchise the Browns have become. How is it that throughout training camp you have your first string quarterback (Charlie Frye) take the majority of snaps with the first team. You then send him into the first game with the coaching staff not supporting Frye at all, and then your first string quarterback gets benched in the second quarter of the first game. And then, on top of all that, the Browns trade Frye, wasting all of those repetitions that could of gone to remaining quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. Morons. I read this week, I believe it was in Peter King’s Monday morning quarterback column, that Brady Quinn has only take 82 snaps with the Cleveland first team offense. When I consider this number, and then think about how Brady Quinn would do in week 2 against the Bengals, there’s only one thing that I think. He’s going to get killed. And that is why I’m picking the Bengals in what should be an absolute blowout, unless Cincinnati becomes complacent on defense (which is a distinct possibility).
Key to the Game = The play of whoever Cleveland puts in at quarterback is going to have to be stellar in order for the Browns to attempt to match the offensive attack of the Bengals.

Indianapolis (-7 1/2) @ Tennessee – My Pick = IND 31 – TEN 28 – I am really looking forward to watching this game. Last week the Titans were able to rush for 275 yards against a supposedly very good Jacksonville defense (who might be vastly overrated, but we will have to wait in order to verify this statement), and the Colts looked stout against the two headed monster of Duece McAllister and Reggie Bush last week. Something’s going to have to give. I expect Indy’s defense to hold up because they are fresh after an eleven day layoff, but they won't look nearly as good this week against a better offense.
Keys to the Game: Quarterback Vince Young will have to step up and give the Titans more than the 87 yards he threw for last week against Jacksonville, and the Titans secondary will have to jam the Indy receivers at the line to disrupt their routes (something New Orleans didn’t do in week 1).

Houston @ Carolina (-7) – My Pick = CAR 24 – HOU 21 – I was very impressed by Houston last week against the Chiefs (I know, it’s the Chiefs), especially with their defense. It seemed to me that the addition of Danny Clark really bolstered the linebacking corps, and gave a great amount of help in the middle of the field to stud middle linebacker DaMeco Ryans. And probably the instance where I was most excited about this week – other than the absolutely fantastic news that Bills tight end Kevin Everett was moving his limbs – was how Mario Williams played against the Chiefs (2 sacks, forced fumble, recovered fumble, and a fumble return for a touchdown. I hope that Williams will become a household name this year, and the Texans fans stop referring to him as ‘that Williams guy we chose instead of Vince Young and Reggie Bush.’
Key to the Game: The play of the Carolina secondary covering against by far the Texans best weapon, wide receiver Andre Johnson. If they stop Johnson, the Texans’ Jacoby Jones will have to step up in a hurry.

San Francisco (+3) @ St. Louis – My Pick = STL 27 – SF 10 – The Arizona-San Francisco second part of the Monday night double header was one of the worst football games I’ve ever seen in my life. Both offenses were awful and San Francisco was very lucky to have won the ball game (See: highlight of Arizona cornerback Eric Green not picking up a Arnaz Battle fumble with less than thirty seconds left to win the game), but St. Louis running back Steven Jackson also had a dreadful game last week against the Panthers. So who triumphs? In this situation, I expect the player to improve much quicker than the entire offense and actually hold onto the ball. I see the Rams coming out firing on all their offensive cylinders on their home turf, especially Steven Jackson.
Key to the Game: If the 49ers want to win this game all-pro running back Frank Gore will have to rush for more than 125 yards this week, because San Francisco’s passing offense is extremely poor.

Green Bay (-1) @ New York Giants – My Pick = GB 25 – NYG 20 – It appears like Eli Manning will not play this week, which means that the – for lack of a better phrase – hefty lefty Jared Lorenzan begins his journey out of the NFL Sunday against a very impressive Green Bay defense. I, being a Bears fan, always like to see Green Bay lose, but it would be especially nice to see it happen Sunday against the 280 pound Giants quarterback, simply for the weight concentrated headlines in the New York media Monday morning. With all that being said though, I think Green Bay will win in a very close game.
Key to the Game: Brett Favre not putting the Packer defense in bad positions with careless turnovers.

Atlanta @ Jacksonville (-10 ½) – My Pick = JAX 14 – ATL 3 – This was a very difficult decision because of a couple questions about Jacksonville that I simply couldn’t answer. How good is Jacksonville’s defense? Will they improve their rushing defense after last week? Can David Garrard put more than 10 points on the board? And the list goes on and on. While I don’t have the answers to those questions, one thing I do know is who’s starting for the Falcons. Key to the Game: Jacksonville stopping the two headed running tandem of Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood for the Falcons.

New Orleans (-4) @ Tampa Bay – My Pick = TB 21 – NO 13 – Even though I picked the Saints to finish second in my preseason rankings, I’m starting to convince myself that they are extremely overrated (mostly because they are now “America’s team,” so all the talking heads at ESPN are picking them). I have a feeling that the Bucs will play very well against the Saints, and I think the Saints will experience the same problems against Tampa Bay this week as they did last year, and eventually lose.
Key to the Game: The play of the Tampa Bay offense, specifically Cadillac Williams and the rushing game. The Bucs will have to control the ball to keep the explosive New Orleans offense off the field, and I believe they will.

Minnesota @ Detroit (+3 ½) – My Pick = MIN 23- DET 21 – Did you see Adrian Peterson last week? Well if you didn’t, you’ll get your chance this week with Chester Taylor injured, and the Detroit defense a bit suspect against the run, oh and did I mention with Tarvaris Jackson starting for Minnesota. If the Vikings find themselves trailing near the end of the game, they’ll have major issues, but I foresee the Vikings defense playing very well early in the game, thus creating many third downs of over eight yards for Detroit. From this, the Vikings will be able to control the field position throughout the game and eventually come out victorious.
Key to the Game: Tarvaris Jackson, who will undoubtedly be faced with tough situations throughout the game, must avoid committing turnovers and play well to keep opposing defenses honest against the run.

Dallas (-4) @ Miami – My Pick = MIA 18 – DAL 9 - This is an extremely difficult game for me to pick. Without Terrance Newman completely healthy throughout the entire season with the same injury that Andres Nocioni had for the Bulls last year, the Dallas defense will be extremely inconsistent at the cornerback position. With that being said, Miami has mediocre receivers and an aging quarterback, so the Cowboys could dodge a bullet this week. While the big Dallas win last week against the Giants says that the Cowboys have a stellar offense, I’m going to go against the grain and pick the Dolphins and their stellar defense to surprise a lot of people and take down the Cowboys.
Key to the Game: The Dolphin offense must show some signs of life this week, and NOT TURN THE BALL OVER, especially with the stellar Dolphin defense capable of winning a game all by themselves.

Seattle (-3) @ Arizona – My Pick = SEA 24 – ARI 14 – A three point line? I was very surprised to see this, and maybe there’s something that the gamblers see that I don’t? All I know is that I watched Arizona’s offense Monday night, and it’s safe to say that their offensive line still stinks, and they will struggle against Julian Peterson and the rest of the Seahawks suffocating pass rush. So the pick is the Seahawks down in the desert.
Key to the Game: Is Arizona’s defense that good, or is San Francisco’s offense that bad? Coming away from the Monday night game, that was the big question, and we’ll have the answer early in the Seattle-Arizona game this week.

New York Jets @ Baltimore (pick ‘em) – My Pick = BAL 34 – NYJ 3 – The biggest blowout of the week finds the Ravens avenging their loss to the Bengals by absolutely pounding the Jets on both sides of the ball. The Jets have all the signs of an one year wonder. Not to help their cause in this game, the Jets fans will be calling for Kellen Clemens in the third quarter after Chad Pennington throws his third interception of the day, this time to Ed Reed.
Keys to the Game: The New York offensive line will have to play open holes for Thomas Jones and keep the Ravens off of their frail quarterback for the Jets to have any chance of topping the Ravens. Also, Baltimore cannot turn the ball over six times and expect to contend for the Super Bowl like they hope. Steve McNair will have to play better this week.

Oakland @ Denver (-10) – My pick = DEN 31 – OAK 10 – I really want to pick the Raiders here, but they simply do not have even close to enough offensive power to defeat Denver at home. With the Broncos sending Champ Bailey and Dre Bly out to the cornerback positions, it allows safety John Lynch to come up to the box and stuff running back LaMont Jordan. Also, Denver will have to get a better performance from the vaunted running attack in the future when they have to face elite AFC competition. But for now, I expect the Broncos to easily defeat the Raiders at Mile High Stadium, and the big question will be whether or not they cover the point spread.
Key to the Game: For Oakland to have any chance both Josh McCown and LaMont Jordan will have to have big days statistically, and Oakland will have to score. A simple task in theory, but not if you’ve seen the Raiders over the last two years.

Kansas City @ Chicago (-13 ½) – My Pick = CHI 24 – KC 0 – This is an awfully big point spread, especially with the Bears having lost their best run stuffing defensive tackle in Dusty Dvorceck, and their best safety Mike Brown, both to torn Achilles’. I feel awful, especially for Brown, who has been one of my favorite players on the Bears defense since he came into the league in the same draft as Brian Urlacher. With that being said, I don’t think the Bears will miss Brown or Dvorceck this week against a totally inept Kansas City offense, but they will in the long run.
Key to the Game: The play of both quarterbacks will determine the outcome of this game. It’s too bad for the Chiefs that the Bears have the better quarterback, who has better offensive weapons around him, and a better defense to support him if he turns the ball over.

Philadelphia (-7) @ Washington – My Pick = PHI 21 – WAS 20 – This will be one of the best games of the second week, and I believe it will be the last minute heroics of Donovan McNabb that pulls the Eagles up to a 1-1 record. This game will be hotly contested, with a number of huge hits from stud Washington safeties Shawn Taylor and LaRon Landry, but in the end the deciding factor will be Brian Westbrook.
Keys to the Game: Jason Campbell will have to recognize the exotic blitz schemes that the Philadelphia will bring against him, and if the Redskins want to win Clinton Portis will also have to have a big game.

San Diego @ New England (-4) – My Pick = NE 41 – SD 17 - This will be the game of the week leading up to Sunday, but will turn into a laugher as soon as the teams take the field. The NFL, more than any other game, is about coaching. We see this every week in the NFL and college football, and it will be no more apparent than this week in the game between New England and San Diego. I believe that the Patriots will prove to the San Diego front office, who fired Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-2, made the wrong decision hiring Norv Turner.
Keys to the Game: The San Diego offense versus the New England wide receivers is the matchup to watch in this game. So, the key to the game is the play of the San Diego Chargers’ secondary, who I fully expect to be torched this week.

Enjoy the games this week, and expect a reaction the college picks tomorrow and a Week 2 NFL reaction either Monday or Tuesday.